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Bayern Munich vs Paderborn

Fri 04 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 12 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bayern Munich win: 67.6%

Draw: 15.8%

Paderborn win: 16.6%

Predicted: Bayern Munich

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.35

More corners: Bayern Munich (67.3% home / 32.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bayern Munich

Yes

Probability Bayern Munich wins or draws: 72.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bayern Munich Clearest lean of the available outcomes (68% vs next-best 17%). (68.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (68.0% model probability) High

Corners Bayern Munich (more corners) (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bayern Munich win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.